This webcast replay features David Matheson and Doug Williams of SmartOrg, Inc. discussing the “messy middle” of the innovation process. You’ve got a vision for an innovation opportunity, but uncertainty abounds, and failure is common. To be a good steward of innovation resources, you need a method that allows you to shift from “fail fast” to “fail fastest.”
In this session, Matheson and Williams share a case study example from Rogers Corporation, a maker of engineered materials, and answer questions like:
- What drives issue prioritization in the absence of objective data, and why is that a problem?
- How can I create alignment with technical, commercial, and financial stakeholders who all want to prioritize different things?
- How does a learning plan help you avoid the trap of an execution plan?
Two polls from the webcast are below, and you’ll find the slides at the bottom of the page.
Here are five highlights from the discussion:
1. Use Business Case Modeling to Objectively Prioritize Uncertainty
In the incubation phase, teams often rely on intuition or internal biases to decide what to investigate first. Williams and Matheson argue that building a structured business case model—using ranges instead of single-point assumptions—helps identify which uncertainties matter most. As Williams puts it: “When we think about how do innovators need to be building a business case, it’s not through single value input assumptions. It’s actually through ranges of assumptions.” By calculating the swing in projected value from each uncertainty, teams can prioritize based on objective impact, not just instinct.
2. Surface and Tackle Blind Spots Early in Incubation
Innovation teams frequently overlook critical uncertainties—often outside their technical expertise—that can drastically affect success. These blind spots must be identified systematically to avoid misaligned priorities. As Williams explains: “We call those issues blind spots… something that we became aware of later in the process that had a material impact on whether this is this opportunity is actually going to be able to move forward or not.” In the Rogers Corporation case that Williams and Matheson discussed, the team had developed a promising new antenna material for military vehicles and began pilots with the Army Rangers. However, they failed to consider the sales channel: the technology also needed buy-in from vehicle OEMs. This go-to-market challenge was a hidden issue that, once discovered, had a $1 billion swing in potential value — far exceeding the team’s original focus on technical performance.
3. Invite Finance In Early as a Partner, Not a Barrier
Rather than treating finance as a late-stage evaluator, innovation leaders should involve them early to build stronger, assumption-aware business cases. In the Rogers case study, finance’s structured modeling helped uncover go-to-market risks the innovation team had missed. By collaborating early, finance can help pressure-test assumptions and prevent the misalignment that often dooms promising ideas.
4. Fail Fast by Prioritizing Learning, Not Execution
In the messy middle, the goal isn’t rapid execution—it’s rapid learning. Teams should identify and test the riskiest assumptions first, not just plow ahead with development. Williams explains: “This is not about executing, but about learning. How do we know what to learn first? How do we fail fastest?” Prioritizing learning ensures teams avoid zombie projects and become better stewards of innovation resources by cutting losses early when needed.
5. Don’t Let Strategy Be an Excuse for Vague Thinking
Labeling a project as “strategic” shouldn’t exempt it from rigorous analysis. Matheson warns that “this word strategic is often a proxy for ‘we think it’s going to be big,’ but until you’ve done the critical thinking about what makes it big, then you haven’t done your full innovation work.” Strategic intent must be backed by a clear understanding of value drivers and assumptions—otherwise it becomes a shield for momentum-driven decision-making that ignores market realities.
Host Bios
David Matheson, President & CEO, SmartOrg, Inc.
With over two decades of portfolio and innovation management experience, David is a leader in helping executives achieve better growth results. He is the President and CEO of SmartOrg, Inc., a company he cofounded in 2000 that provides software and services to support decision making and manage uncertainty. He holds a Ph.D. in organizational decision making from Stanford University and is a Fellow with the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP), where he recently completed a term as president. He is also an educator, startup advisor, public speaker and author of “The Smart Organization” from Harvard Business School Press. When off from work, David gravitates towards his passion for cycling and dark chocolate.
Doug Williams, Associate Director, Innovation, SmartOrg, Inc.
Doug leads the innovation practice at SmartOrg, Inc. and is responsible for all go-to-market activities for its Innovation Navigator software. Doug is an industry veteran, having helped over 80 organizations build and grow innovation programs during his time as professional services director at Planview Spigit and analyst at Forrester Research. An engaging speaker, facilitator, and a committed partner to customer success, he helps clients achieve their desired outcomes through a combination of listening, challenging orthodoxies, and building collaborative partnerships. Outside of work, Doug is a drummer in an alternative rock cover band and enjoys seeing live music, traveling, and cooking.
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